Christina Romer is Still Wrong
Thursday September 2nd, 2010
When she and her colleagues [on the Council of Economic Advisers] began work, she acknowledged, they did not realize “how quickly and strongly the financial crisis would affect the economy.” They “failed to anticipate just how violent the recession would be.”
On the one hand she admits that she and her government colleagues underestimated how bad the recession was going to be.
Even now, Romer said, mystery persists. “To this day, economists don’t fully understand why firms cut production as much as they did or why they cut labor so much more than they normally would.” Her defense was that “almost all analysts were surprised by the violent reaction.”
Yet she still thinks businesses were wrong to think it was going to be as bad as it was. She’s basically admitting that she was wrong and that business were right. She just doesn’t realize it.
Or maybe she’s not admitting that businesses were right that the recession was going to be severe. Maybe she thinks the recession was so bad only because businesses cut back on production and labor.
Good luck with that reasoning, lady. I agree with Friedrich Hayek - when lots of individuals make lots of small decisions in their self-interest they will come to a better decision than when a few people on a committee make a few large decisions.
Those business people saw the orders drying up, saw the business disappearing, saw their customers struggling to pay their bills. They responded to those signals by cutting back to save their businesses. Those business people have a better feel of the economic pulse than any Washington bureaucrat.
Economics | Link | 6 Comments |
Didn’t know my own flash’s strength
Thursday September 2nd, 2010
I’ve been using the new-to-me Nikon SB-800 flash lately and I’m having to learn how to use a flash this strong. Using this flash for close-ups is like using an atom bomb to roast a weenie. When you were a kid did you ever burns ants with a magnifying glass? Used up close for head shots at full power that’s what this flash is like.
So I exaggerate a little, but for short-range people photography it’s occasionally blowing out the picture big time. Part of it is the flash’s power. The other part is that the SB-800 is a zoom flash. It zooms with the lens, shaping the light into a narrower beam for longer focal lengths.
I need to remember to carry the factory diffusion dome. It softens the light like all diffusers do, but on the SB-800 it does something else. The flash detects when the diffuser is attached and switches to wide angle (24mm), regardless of the focal length of the lens. If I forget the diffuser I need to go into the menus and turn off zoom mode for closeups.
I’m also getting in the habit of taking a picture, checking the LCD, and then adjusting the flash strength - usually downward.
Photos | Link | 2 Comments |
Everytime I eat Frosted Mini-Wheats I think of this joke…
Thursday September 2nd, 2010
by a stand-up comedian: “See, today y’all got those cute little Frosted Mini-Wheats with the sugar on top. When I was a kid we had to eat the big ole bale a hay Shredded Wheat.”
It’s funny ’cause Shredded Wheat really is a big ole bale a hay.
And Grape Nuts isn’t made with grapes or nuts - it’s just jogging for your jaw.
Previously - Star Wars Breakfast Cereal
Food & Drink, Funny Ha-Ha | Link | No Comments |
FDIC is $15 Billion in the Hole
Wednesday September 1st, 2010
CNN - Problem bank list climbs to 829:
More money in the kitty. The FDIC reported a second consecutive increase in its deposit insurance fund, which covers customer deposits when a bank fails. The fund, which had been dwindling for two years, grew by $5.5 billion, but it still operates in the red, with a deficit of $15.2 billion.
“As we expected, demand on cash have increased this year,” said Bair. “But our projections indicate that our current resources are more than enough to resolve anticipated failures.”
Right. Your insurance program is underwater, but you have plenty of reserves. No worries.
Kidding aside, the government has bailed out everything else. There’s no doubt in my mind they’ll bail out the agency in charge of bailing out bank depositors as long as they’ve got a penny they can borrow. It’s just that this can’t go on forever, which means it won’t.
Short term - no worries. Medium to long term - I have some nagging concerns about the FDIC getting in over their heads in a black swan-type event.
That makes this post from last year timely again - Where do you put money if you’re concerned about bank failures? I’ve added a few updates. Another reason it’s timely again - gold is heading back into new record highs.
Economics | Link | 2 Comments |
Science Struggles to Explain Keith Richards
Tuesday August 31st, 2010
Why Do Heavy Drinkers Outlive Nondrinkers?
Science | Link | 2 Comments |
My Million Dollar Web Site Idea
Tuesday August 31st, 2010
I’m going to name my next Web site 500 Internal Server Error. That way when the site is screwed up no one will be able to tell.
Previously - My Million Dollar Accounting Firm Idea
Funny Ha-Ha, Tech | Link | No Comments |
Another Reason to Avoid Homeowners Associations
Monday August 30th, 2010
HOAs hiking dues because of foreclosures:
Over the past 18 months, an estimated 10 percent of [Arizona's] million-plus HOA members have abandoned their homes or been forced out by foreclosure, based on data from Arizona’s largest community-management firms. Without payments from those members, many HOAs have been forced to raise dues, crack down on late payers and cut back on services.
Economics | Link | No Comments |
Shadow Housing Inventory Hits New High
Monday August 30th, 2010
I’ve mentioned the shadow inventory of houses that should be up for sale, but aren’t. Here’s more proof that inventory is growing.
From David Rosenberg: THIS Is What A Bear Market In Housing Looks Like.
Economics | Link | No Comments |
Serious charge against Paris Hilton
Saturday August 28th, 2010
The Ass. Press suggests Paris Hilton might not actually write her own Tweets:
Less than an hour later, Hilton’s Twitter account was updated with a posting that said the actress was in bed watching the television show “Family Guy,” and then that she was going to sleep. It was unclear if the tweets came from her, were posted by time-release or were sent by someone else.
Say it ain’t so. The Ass. Press had better have solid sourcing on this or it could blow up in their faces.
In other news, Hilton was arrested for possession of cocaine.
Police Officer Marcus Martin said the motorcycle officer pulled the Escalade over on Las Vegas Boulevard after noticing smoke that smelled like marijuana. Police later found a substance in Hilton’s purse that tests showed to be cocaine, Martin said. He didn’t say how much of the drug was found.
Hilton was arrested on suspicion of felony cocaine possession.
Blogging | Link | No Comments |
Civil Rights Victory in Belle Meade
Saturday August 28th, 2010
Racist gun control law removed from the books.
Guns | Link | No Comments |
How Bad is the Housing Market?
Thursday August 26th, 2010
“If the truth be told, if we are talking about reversing all the bubble appreciation that began a decade ago, then we are talking about another 15% downside from here. The excess inventory data alone tell us that this has a realistic chance of occurring…The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent. Guess how many homes prices above $750k managed to sell in July. Answer — zero, nada, rien; and for the second month in a row.“
That’s for new homes, not existing homes, but still. Holy the moly.
Economics | Link | No Comments |
President Obama Erases Candidate Obama’s Energy Promises
Thursday August 26th, 2010
Obama Scrubs White House Website of Climate Change Promises, Media Mum:
Especially interesting it the sudden disappearance of Obama’s plan to commit $150 billion on clean energy research and development.
Also gone is any clear pledge to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions via his formerly touted cap and trade legislative efforts. For instance, the section once titled “Closing the Carbon Loophole and Cracking Down on Polluters” is now vanished down the memory hole.
Obama to environmentalists: thanks for your votes, suckers.
Environment | Link | 2 Comments |
WordPress Links
Thursday August 26th, 2010
I’m bookmarking all of these from Joost de Valk’s awesome WordPress newsletter. Highly recommended if you administer WordPress sites.
Common WordPress Multisite Problems and Solutions. WordPress 3.0 is multi-user out of the box, so every WordPress blog can now host multiple blogs. I’ve got an idea for using that at work if I can find the time.
Lessons Learned From Maintaining a WordPress Plug-In
Add a Facebook “Like” button to your WordPress blog
16 Vital Checks Before Releasing a WordPress Theme. Here’s the easiest one.
11: Enable Custom Backgrounds
This is a new feature in WordPress 3.0, and it’s also the easiest to implement. It’s literally one line:
1. add_custom_background();
add_custom_background();
That’s it! Users can now choose any custom background they want.
Blogging | Link | No Comments |
Thumbs Up for the Sony Dream Machine
Wednesday August 25th, 2010
Got this to replace my awful Magnavox clock radio, which should have been called the Charles Manson and Kathy Griffin Are Giving Me Nightmares Machine. Love it.
Big numbers I can read without glasses. Automatically sets the time and adjusts to daylight savings and standard time. Good quality sound. Setting the alarm is quick and easy even when you’re half asleep.
Press the snooze button more than once and it adds 10 minutes for each press. The display shows total snooze time. Nice.
Costs 20 clams at Best Buy. Bargain.
Home Life | Link | 4 Comments |
More Solar Power Nonsense
Wednesday August 25th, 2010
It’s time for another “solar power is just around the corner” article, this time from CNN via Random Nuclear Strikes.
CNN - Do-it-yourself solar power for your home:
We expect the average homeowner to buy around two or three solar panels. In terms of tax rebates — based on a typical $799 installation — it’s a 30 percent tax credit, so that’s a $240 credit off the top. And then depending on the state you’re in — we use California because they are the most typical in terms of solar and renewables, $2 per watt — that’s another $400 credit. So we’re talking a net cost of being able to do this for under $200. Of course you have to wait for those tax rebates.
Caviar would be as cheap as hamburger if the government subsidized it. And, gee, I wonder why California is broke?
How long until these units pay for themselves?
Four years or less. That includes tax cuts and rebates, and will obviously depend on the cost of your electricity. We’ve used California as a model; in states like Hawaii, where electricity [cost] is higher, the payback will be faster. Larger [conventional] systems are 8 to 15 years. Our installed [cost] is about $3.50 -$4 per watt where larger turnkey systems are $5-$6 per watt.
But that’s with the government paying 75% of the cost. If you take government subsidies into account or if you have to pay for it with your own money it would take 16 years to pay for itself. That’s pretty much been the payback period for solar for ages.
Meanwhile you have to clean it, hope it doesn’t get destroyed by hail, falling treelimbs, or stray baseballs, and keep it from being stolen. Then you have to hope that the stupid thing lasts 16 years without repairs, which seems unlikely.
This is exactly why lots of people talk about going solar, but hardly anyone ever does. The payback period is so long that it’s dubious. Too, if this is like other solar ROI calculations I’ve seen they’re talking about simple payback with no accounting for inflation or lost interest.
With the base model, the $600 single-panel setup, what’s the monthly dip in energy cost? How much would it offset an electricity bill?
Thirty to 40 kilowatt hours per month translates to around $50 a year in energy cost savings.
$50/year is $4.16/month. You’re spending $200 with federal and state subsidies or $800 without to save $4.16 per month.
Financially speaking, there are easier ways to save four bucks a month. Environmentally speaking, there are easier ways to save 40 kilowatt hours per month, like using CFLs ($3 each, putting lights on motion sensors ($10), or using a programmable thermostat ($25 at Home Depot and installation involves unscrewing and rescrewing five color-coded wires). The solar panel is sexier and you can brag about it to your friends, but it makes less sense.
Wisdom of backfeeding AC into AC outlets?
One reason this device is so cheap is that it there’s no rewiring involved. It just plugs into an AC outlet, sending electricity out into the house for other devices to use. I don’t know enough about electrical systems to comment, but I know that this isn’t recommended when you’re talking about emergency generators. The double-male electrical cords used to backfeed generator AC into the home are nicknamed “widow makers.”
Doesn’t store, doesn’t scale
You can’t just keep adding these and get efficient use out of them. He makes it clear that this is not a grid-tied system, so power can’t go into the grid to run your meter backwards. There’s also no storage in battery banks.
So, if you’re not at home during the day when the solar panels are producing power, where does the electricity go? It can run your AC in the summer, or the fan for your central heat in the winter. Some dishwashers have a time delay, so you could set your dishwasher to run in the middle of the day.
Realistically, though, much of that power will go unused because there’s no way to store it. To solve that problem you’d either need to add a battery bank for storage or install a grid intertie (if your local utility offers net metering). At that point, however, the cost goes up to that of traditional solar systems. Traditional systems have a payback period of 20 years or so.
I hope solar will make sense one day, but I’m jaded from hearing this stuff my entire life. Cheap solar is always just around the corner, but never here. If you treat the solar marketers with the same suspicion you treat other marketers their stories become much less appealing.
Meanwhile, here’s Scott Adams describing his new green home.
Conclusion: Photovoltaic systems are a waste of money. But I’d do it again in a heartbeat, because I love the Earth, damn it. In my defense, the price of your future photovoltaic system will never come down unless idiots like me pay too much today. You’re welcome.
Environment | Link | 4 Comments |
James Cameron backs out of global warming debate at last minute
Tuesday August 24th, 2010
Environment | Link | No Comments |
Weekend Photography Notes from Cades Cove
Monday August 23rd, 2010
- I used the SB-800 flash extensively. Out of all the great things it can do my favorite feature is being able to easily dial the flash power up and down from the back of the flash to get the light just right. I also played around with using it remotely to light up corners and staircases in old cabins - that works great.
- The thing that ruins more pictures for me than anything is not paying attention to my camera’s settings. Gotta work on that.
- The 70-200mm F2.8 has real potential, but it’s a tricky lens to use. The big aperture gives a shallow depth of field that doesn’t leave much room for missing focus. Time to learn the depth of field tables.
- It’s also a big, heavy lens. One of these days I wouldn’t mind buying another copy of the Nikon 70-300mm VR. Sure, it’s two stops slower, but it takes great pictures, it’s much shorter, it weighs half as much, and if it gets dropped or stolen you’re out $500 instead of $2,000. The 70-300mm will have to wait, though. I want an ultra-wide angle first, for a practical application I’ve got in mind and to play with wide angle distortion.
- Using the lens hood on the 70-200mm lets me rest it on my leg or any convenient surface to take the weight off.
- I love Picasa - it’s free, fast and great - but the more I use Adobe Lightroom the more I like the results it gives.
Edited in Google Picasa 3.8:
Edited in Adobe Lightroom 3:
Photos | Link | No Comments |
Nikon Single Servo AF-S Autofocus vs. Continuous Servo AF-C Autofocus
Monday August 23rd, 2010
Sometimes I’ve tried to take a picture and the camera refused to fire. Now I realize why - it was in Single Servo focus mode and it couldn’t get a definite focus lock.
I ran into this the other day. I wanted to photograph some flowers that only open in the morning. I took my camera from the air-conditioned house into the balmy August morning. The camera wouldn’t fire. The warm, humid air had condensed on the cold lens. The camera couldn’t get focus lock through the fogged glass. Because it was in Single Servo mode it therefore refused to fire. Once I wiped off the moisture the camera fired just fine.
Reading the SB-800 flash manual the other day I learned that it makes a difference to the flash whether the camera is set to use Single Servo or Continuous Servo mode. Having these things happen back to back inspired me to write this up for my reference. Maybe it’ll help someone else, too.
Single Servo Autofocus (AF-S)
- Nikon’s description: “In single-servo AF (AF-S), focus will lock if the shutter-release button is kept pressed halfway after the camera focuses.”
- The camera will not fire unless it can get a definite focus lock. You’ll know it has focus lock when the little green focus dot in the viewfinder lights up. No dot means no focus lock.
- You can override the requirement for focus lock by moving the mode dial to Sports mode on newer Nikons. In Sports mode the camera will fire even without definite focus lock.
- The major reason to use focus lock (and therefore AF-S) is to be able to set focus and recompose the picture. For instance, if you’re photographing a person the focus should be on their eyes, but you may not want the eyes or even the person at the center of your picture. So you would aim at the eyes, press and hold the shutter release halfway to set focus, and then move the camera to recompose. Even though the person’s eyes aren’t in the center of the picture the focus is still set to the same distance as their eyes.
- (Disclaimer: this flash discussion is based on my SB-800. I’m assuming other contemporary Nikon flashes work the same way.) On Nikon hotshoe flashes with autofocus illuminators - such as the SB-600, Sb-800, and SB-900 - the flash can assist in setting focus by using infrared beams, if this is enabled in the flash’s menus. The default is enabled.
Continuous Servo Autofocus (AF-C)
- Nikon’s description: “In continuous-servo AF (AF-C), the camera will continue to focus if the shutter-release button is kept pressed halfway after the camera focuses. Because the camera continues to focus up to the moment the shutter-release button is pressed all the way down, this mode is a good choice for subjects that are in motion.”
- This is primarily uses for shooting sports or moving objects, but it has other applications. The camera will fire even if it doesn’t have a definite focus lock. This is useful in situations in focus scenes that confuse the camera, such as shooting a rippling water surface or shooting through tall grass.
- Pressing the shutter button halfway will not lock focus distance. This is by design - in AF-C mode you want focus to keep updating until the last possible moment to track a subject in motion.
- The hotshoe flash will not provide infrared AF-assist in dark settings.
Automatic Autofocus (AF-A)
- Nikon’s description: “Some cameras offer an auto-servo AF focus mode that automatically selects between AF-S and AF-C. When the shutter-release button is pressed halfway, focus locks briefly after the camera focuses on the subject in the focus point. If the subject then starts to move, changing the distance to the camera, the camera will automatically switch to continuous-servo autofocus and adjust focus in response to the change in distance to the subject.”
- A good default, “set it and forget” it mode to leave the camera in so it’s ready for whatever the next time you pick it up.
- When my D40’s mode dial is set to green A (Automatic) the camera automatically goes to AF-A.
How to Access These Focus Settings
In my Nikon D40 I press the Menu button on the back of the camera, then go to the Custom Setting Menu and then Focus Mode.
When the camera mode dial is on green A (Automatic) the focus setting automatically goes to Automatic. In Automatic mode the only options under Focus Mode are AF-A and Manual.
These Rules Only Apply In Autofocus Mode
These are autofocus settings. All of this goes out the window when manually focusing lenses.
References and Additional Information
Nikon - Predictive Focus Tracking System - Fascinating look at Nikon’s focusing technology.
Nikon - Nikon D Technology - The Power to Change Your Photography - Covers particulars of the autofocus system, such as the interaction between Focus Mode and Autofocus Area Mode.
Photos | Link | No Comments |
Swimming Pool Picasso
Sunday August 22nd, 2010
I love the way the color dissolves underwater.
Photos | Link | No Comments |
My Million Dollar Accounting Firm Idea
Saturday August 21st, 2010
I’m going to open an accounting firm. I’m gonna call it Accounting Crows.
Previously - My Million Dollar Idea for a Kids Band
Funny Ha-Ha | Link | 2 Comments |
Test of Content Delivery Networks (CDNs)
Friday August 20th, 2010
Paessler.com - “Real World” Performance Comparison of CDN (Content Delivery Network) Providers:
Lesson #1: Using Any CDN is Better Than Not Using One
When we compared the CDN sites with the cloud computing based sites we found that almost all CDNs we have tested are faster than all servers hosted by cloud computing providers. Even if you are using the fastest cloud server in our test, using a CDN for website assets will likely slash asset load times by up to 50%, especially for users outside the U.S. Using a CDN is the second recommendation in Yahoo’s “Best Practices for Speeding Up Your Web Site”).
E-commerce | Link | No Comments |
Conversation About the New Neighbor Kids
Thursday August 19th, 2010
FIVE YEAR OLD KATIE: Can we go next door?
MELISSA: I don’t think they’re home.
FIVE YEAR OLD KATIE: Yes they are! I pushed a chair up to the window, looked through it and saw them inside.
(A new family moved into the house next door with two kids the same age as ours. Katie and Natalie are overjoyed.)
Home Life | Link | No Comments |
Please Vote for My Photowalk Picture
Thursday August 19th, 2010
My photo was selected for my group in Knoxville. Now it’s the People’s Choice Awards and it’s up for voting. I’d appreciate your vote. Go here and vote for the second Knoxville phone, the black and white “Natalie and Doggie.”
And thanks!
Photos | Link | 1 Comment |
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