Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections

64 Responses to Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections

1. Spoons says:

   October 31, 2004 at 7:39 pm

   Re-check Election Projection’s prediction. I think you have it wrong.

   Also, for the record, my prediction is:
   Kerry 304, Bush 234
2. The Spoons Experience says:

   October 31, 2004 at 7:39 pm

   BLOGGERS PREDICT

   Les Jones did the hard work and has compiled a list of bloggers’ predictions for the election. Also, just to…
3. Les Jones says:

   October 31, 2004 at 7:56 pm

   Ah, thanks. I’ve fixed their numbers and added yours. I appreciate the link, too.
4. Laurence Simon says:

   October 31, 2004 at 8:01 pm

   I’m predicting Nader 0.
5. Bill White says:

   October 31, 2004 at 9:43 pm

   Howdy!

   What’s with all the October predictions? Here’s mine from August 8, 2004: http://minutiae.stblogs.org/archives/017036.html

   Kerry gets between 11 and 49 electoral votes. *shrug*.
6. Steve K. says:

   October 31, 2004 at 9:44 pm

   The Washington Post has some predictions, mostly from ninny pundits and assorted political hacks:

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinion/outlook/outlookCrystalBall04.html

   I’d post the numbers here, but they’re in a goofy graphic, and I’m not about to type them in by hand.

   The only notable prediction is Bill Kristol’s: Bush 348/Kerry 190. As if that wasn’t crazy enough by itself, he manages to out-crazy Ann Coulter by a wide margin (she calls it 317/221). Out-crazying Ann Coulter is no mean feat.

   Personally, I truly have no freakin’ idea who’s going to win or what the margin will be. If I had to guess, though, I suppose I’d say that it will be really close, with either Kerry or Bush pulling it out in a squeaker, although it’s also possible that one of them might actually win decisively, too. And the polls back me up on this.
7. Steve K. says:

   October 31, 2004 at 9:52 pm

   I will go out on a limb, though, and say that Bush won’t get 348 electoral votes. Kerry won’t, either. I’m open to wagers, if anyone’s interested.
8. Adam says:

   October 31, 2004 at 11:02 pm

   Here’s mine: http://web.utk.edu/~agroves/archives/00000260.html
9. Wizbang says:

   October 31, 2004 at 11:18 pm

   Wizbang Electoral Vote Prediction

   I’ve been back and forth on Ohio, so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the final EV total was 271-267. There’s a bunch of states the used to be solid Kerry that are now tossups, but I’ve assumed Kerry…
10. Jay Reding.com says:

    October 31, 2004 at 11:38 pm

    Electoral College Prediction 2004

    Without further ado, here’s my prediction for the Electoral College in 2004:

    This results in Bush 310/Kerry 228, and a resounding Bush win.

    Read on for the method behind the madness.

    The first and most important factor here is simple:…
11. The Raving Atheist says:

    November 1, 2004 at 12:07 am

    As I first predicted on September 3, the final tally will be Bush 293, Kerry 245.
12. countertop says:

    November 1, 2004 at 12:15 am

    How about 329-209 Bush. I predicted a stonger finish for him in May, but he’s run a poor campaign and even the Traitorous Lout is able to keep it close.

    For what its worth, I also tackle the Senate and make predictions in each major Senate race.
13. One Fine Jay says:

    November 1, 2004 at 12:29 am

    Place yer bets

    I can’t resist:

    I’m too soused to try to explain why I made it like this. Consider this a projection of my wishful thinking. Go and make your own map (Flash required).

    More bets at Les Jones’.
14. roy says:

    November 1, 2004 at 12:58 am

    Thanks to all bloggers. Now on behalf of all the Canadians who love your country and envy your political process PLEASE VOTE, GET ALL OF YOUR FRIENDS TO VOTE, GO TO THE LOCAL STARBUCKS AND GET PEOPLE YOU HAVE NEVER MET BEFORE TO VOTE. It is so important that you show all of us that people inside a country can fight like cats and dogs with bitter, angry words and then simply resolve the whole thing with the pull of a lever or a touch on a touch screen or a punch thru a punch card. The world looks to you to discover what a healthy democracy looks like, please don’t let us down.
15. S says:

    November 1, 2004 at 1:07 am

    The Weekly Standard has a number of predictions here;

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/831ikvkm.asp
16. Adam says:

    November 1, 2004 at 1:13 am

    Hey Les, Tucker Carlson has John Kerry winning. You have the EC votes reversed for Bush/Kerry on his prediction.
17. Leon says:

    November 1, 2004 at 1:15 am

    Hi,

    You have the numbers reversed on this link on your page.
    Here is what you have: Tucker Carlson (CNN) – Bush 278, Kerry 260 prediction made October 31 , added October 31

    It should be: Tucker Carlson (CNN) – Bush 260, Kerry 278 prediction made October 31 , added October 31

    I know it seems strange but Tuker did vote against the Pubs.
18. The Sundries Shack says:

    November 1, 2004 at 3:14 am

    Predictions! Predictions ! Predictions!

    If you’re interested in seeing what the pundits, and lots and lots of bloggers, are predicting for the election, you have only to go to a couple places.

    First, stop by Les Jones’ Blog and check out his Big Ol’ List O’Predictions.

    Then go on o…
19. Les Jones says:

    November 1, 2004 at 8:28 am

    Adam and Leon: fixed, thanks.

    Steve and S: thanks for the links. I added some of the individual predictions to the list, and added a category at the bottom for prediction roundups.
20. Autonomous Source says:

    November 1, 2004 at 8:39 am

    Election prediction

    It might seem strange for a Canadian to get so worked up about an election in another country, but I have. This year’s American Presidential election fascinates me. Every day I check both the national and swing-state polls and read…
21. SayUncle says:

    November 1, 2004 at 8:40 am

    I think you’re pretty much right. I think Bush may grab PA and NM too.
22. Outside The Beltway says:

    November 1, 2004 at 9:46 am

    OTB Election Prediction: Bush 286, Kerry 252

    The election is tomorrow (except for the nearly one fifth of the electorate who’ve already voted) and the polls aren’t any clearer than they were six months ago.

    The RealClear Politics average has it Bush 48.5%, Kerry 46.8%, Nader 0.8% (Bush +1.7…
23. Young Goodman Brown says:

    November 1, 2004 at 10:06 am

    FYI, you have posted the composite polling map from Election Projection, not Scott’s own prediction.

    Scott’s prediction is a Bush win, 356-182 in the electoral college and 51.9%-46.5% in the popular vote.

    Nice collection, by the way. Very handy one-stop shopping.
24. SmugMonkey says:

    November 1, 2004 at 10:56 am

    A thrashing of near Reagan/Mondale proportions…

    http://smugmonkey.blogspot.com/2004/11/official-prediction-thread.html

    Popular vote: Bush 59.6 sKerry 40.4

    Place your bets.
25. murdoc says:

    November 1, 2004 at 11:52 am

    Great work on this post! It’s nice to see all the Political Pajama Predictions in one place.

    For the record, I’m standing by my August Final Prediction of Bush 305 – Kerry 233.

    (Map on my site but MT-Blacklist won’t let me put my URL up.)

    If anything, I might have underestimated the spread, which I noted back then but feel even more strongly about today. But despite my misgivings, This Is My Story, And I’m Sticking To It.
26. Les Jones says:

    November 1, 2004 at 1:52 pm

    Young Goodman Brown: OK, I’ve added Scott’s own prediction and kept his polling prediction, too. Interesting that they’re so radically different.

    Murdoc: I looked through the MT-Blacklist to see why your link was banned. “murdoc” isn’t in there, so I think your URL somehow matches one of the banned addresses that includes “on1ine”. (Crap! It wouldn’t let me post until I mis-spelled that word. I’ll have to dig some more.)

    I added your prediction. Yours too, Smug Monkey, and everyone else who posted, too. Thanks.
27. I'm N.O. Pundit! says:

    November 1, 2004 at 2:02 pm

    Why George Bush Will Win

    George Bush will win the 2004 presidential election. Here’s why: the political marketplace of ideas has grown dramatically more efficient in the last four years, and this fact will translate directly into votes for Bush. You might call me a…
28. I'm N.O. Pundit! says:

    November 1, 2004 at 2:02 pm

    Why George Bush Will Win

    George Bush will win the 2004 presidential election. Here’s why: the political marketplace of ideas has grown dramatically more efficient in the last four years, and this fact will translate directly into votes for Bush. You might call me a…
29. I'm N.O. Pundit! says:

    November 1, 2004 at 2:02 pm

    Why George Bush Will Win

    George Bush will win the 2004 presidential election. Here’s why: the political marketplace of ideas has grown dramatically more efficient in the last four years, and this fact will translate directly into votes for Bush. You might call me a…
30. dustbury.com says:

    November 1, 2004 at 2:11 pm

    And the inevitable prediction

    See also Les Jones’s Blogger Roundup….
31. Smug Monkey says:

    November 1, 2004 at 2:14 pm

    Thanks Les – bookmarked and blogrolled!
32. countertop says:

    November 1, 2004 at 3:08 pm

    Just wanted to provide an update to my earlier prediction. We took a survey here at work (I work at one of the larger non partisan – but still rather conservative – trade associations in D.C.) and all but 2 people in the office today (myself and one other) think Kerry is going to send Bush home.
33. Peaktalk says:

    November 1, 2004 at 3:10 pm

    ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTIONS

    All over the map, as you can see over at Les Jones
34. Devin McCullen says:

    November 1, 2004 at 4:21 pm

    Here’s a bunch from American Prospect people:

    http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8824

    Yglesias is calling a 269-269 tie.
35. Jay Currie says:

    November 1, 2004 at 5:31 pm

    Bush by 3-5% of PV, 7-20 EC votes.

    I base my Made in Canada prediciton on the fact that virtually all of Kerry’s vote is actually anti-Bush. I have yet to see any evidence that people are being galvanized to march out and vote for Kerry. The anti-Bush base is stalled at about 40% of the electorate.

    To win an election you need to have people who really want you to win, not just people who want the other guy to lose.

    OBL reminded the world, and Americans, that there is a war on and Johnny Cambodia does not seem to get this.

    Washington insiders, most of the media, a lot of bloggers, have siddled over to Kerry because they do not see Bush executing the war very well. They are mired in the details – I mean 400 tons of explosives from a cache estimated at 500,000 tons?

    Out side the beltway and the editorial offices, people know there are no perfect wars. But they also know that since Bush began the war on terror there has not been a further act of terror in America.

    They’ll break Bush tomorrow. And, possibly, break in a pretty massive way.
36. Texican Tattler says:

    November 1, 2004 at 5:44 pm

    Les Jones’s Blog: Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the

    A great big old bunch of predictions on tomorrow’s big event. Allow me to summarize: it’ll either be close, or someone’s gonna win big.

    Now get out and vote.
37. Irreconcilable Musings says:

    November 1, 2004 at 6:09 pm

    Electoral Math

    If we take today’s RCP poll averages and translate them to electoral votes, the map above represents how the electoral vote breaks down. It also represents what I think is the bare minimum margin Bush must win the electoral
38. GWB the Father says:

    November 1, 2004 at 6:23 pm

    G Bush ev 296 add four more if HI goes GB’s way
    J Kerry ev 242

    This will be the final, after two weeks of waiting, after 10,000 lawyers get done and there are three trips to the Supreme court.
39. Les Jones says:

    November 1, 2004 at 7:40 pm

    Thanks, Devin. I added the American Prospect link under the Roundups heading, and put Matt Yglesias’ vote under the main heading.
40. The Raving Atheist says:

    November 1, 2004 at 8:04 pm

    My prediction, as evidenced by my first commment and the accompanying link, is Bush 293, Kerry 245. For some reason, you have me as predicting Kerry 282, Bush 256 (which seems to be close to the prediction immediately beneath mine on that link).
41. Blogs of War says:

    November 1, 2004 at 10:46 pm

    Election Alert: Blogs of War Prediction

    I have a few different scenarios mapped out and while predictions in this race are risky sitting on the fence isn’t much fun. I have a feeling that analysts can throw conventional wisdom out the window for this one. Unfortunately, that’s all we really…
42. Alan M. says:

    November 2, 2004 at 12:38 am

    Here’s mine- 40 states for Bush, 10 for Kerry, which is 360 red vs 178 blue. Go Dubya!
43. Watcher of Weasels says:

    November 2, 2004 at 1:37 am

    My Prediction: Bush 279, Bin Laden 259

    After reading the interesting poll analysis over at Power Line, I thought I’d rerun the numbers at Tradesports and see where things stand now.  Just over a week ago, the state by state futures were predicting a Bush win with…
44. RIGHT ON RED >> says:

    November 2, 2004 at 2:14 am

    My Prediction(s)

    Hey, slow down that bandwagon! I wanna hop on board. Here’s my prediction, an even 300 for Bush:

    Here’s what I fear. Let’s face it folks; it could happen – 299 for Kerry:

    I want to say Hawaii is going Bush, just for fun, but why pile o…
45. RIGHT ON RED >> says:

    November 2, 2004 at 2:14 am

    My Prediction(s)

    Hey, slow down that bandwagon! I wanna hop on board. Here’s my prediction, an even 300 for Bush:

    Here’s what I fear. Let’s face it folks; it could happen – 299 for Kerry:

    I want to say Hawaii is going Bush, just for fun, but why pile o…
46. RIGHT ON RED >> says:

    November 2, 2004 at 2:14 am

    My Prediction(s)

    Hey, slow down that bandwagon! I wanna hop on board. Here’s my prediction, an even 300 for Bush:

    Here’s what I fear. Let’s face it folks; it could happen – 299 for Kerry:

    I want to say Hawaii is going Bush, just for fun, but why pile o…
47. Pajamasphere says:

    November 2, 2004 at 4:15 am

    Bush 296. That’s every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don’t trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.

    Justification and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html

    By the way, the average prediction for Bush so far on this page is 290.

    For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That’s 348.
48. Les Jones says:

    November 2, 2004 at 8:39 am

    Atheist: fixed, thanks.
49. Six Meat Buffet says:

    November 2, 2004 at 10:01 am

    Caving into peer pressure

    Sadly, I have a gut feeling that Kerry is going to pull this one off. Bush wins Florida, but loses Ohio, Michigan, Jersey, Pennsylvania AND the coveted 4 electrical college votes from Hawaii.
50. PoliBlog says:

    November 2, 2004 at 10:12 am

    The Final Slice: It’s the Election Day Toast-O-Meter

    –Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2004 election–

    Texas Toast or French Toast?Tracking the race to the White House.

    FINALLY: It’s Time to Serve the Toast

    After a campaign season that started in 1812 (ok, it actually started in ea…
51. Ron says:

    November 2, 2004 at 11:46 am

    Just because all the other cool kids are doing it:

    Bush 290 / Kerry 248
52. Reactuate says:

    November 2, 2004 at 11:49 am

    Electorial College

    Personally I’d like to sleep through today and just wake up tomorrow and see who won. But that isn’t going to happen sooooo…since all the cool kids are doing it…here’s my prediction of the ele…
53. TalkLeft: The Politics of Crime says:

    November 2, 2004 at 1:41 pm

    It’s Prediction Time

    Bump and Update: Today’s the day. The contest will remain open until 6:00 pm ET. Get your predictions in…and your contributions if you want a prize for winning. The pot is now up to $55.00. Update: Great roundup of blogger…
54. Watcher of Weasels says:

    November 2, 2004 at 2:26 pm

    My Prediction: Bush 279, Bin Laden 259

    After reading the interesting poll analysis over at Power Line, I thought I’d rerun the numbers at Tradesports and see where things stand now.  Just over a week ago, the state by state futures were predicting a Bush win with…
55. Bruce Loebrich says:

    November 2, 2004 at 3:55 pm

    I have no idea, so I’m just going with the wackiest prediction I can think of. Kerry wins most of the battleground states, the Colorado initiative passes, and one Bush elector is so depressed he defects to Badnarik. Final results after the courts weigh in: Kerry-315, Bush-222, Badnarik-1.
56. The Jawa Report says:

    November 2, 2004 at 4:25 pm

    New Prediction: Electoral Vote Tie!!

    Ok, call it a political-scientist’s wet dream, but I just calls it likes I sees it. The Electoral Vote will be a tie!! Something that has not happened since the election of 1800, and in that election the tie was…
57. Peaktalk says:

    November 3, 2004 at 11:53 am

    WHO WAS RIGHT?

    It looks like the final score is Bush-Kerry 286 – 252 with a popular vote margin of 3.1%. James Joyner and Stephen Green were exactly right with their prediction for the electoral vote. Check out Les Jones to see how
58. dustbury.com says:

    November 3, 2004 at 3:33 pm

    And the inevitable prediction

    See also Les Jones’s Blogger Roundup. (Update, 3 November, 2:25 pm: Assuming 286-252 holds up, as it appears it will, the Prescience Award goes jointly to James Joyner at…
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60. TreeFrog says:

    February 27, 2006 at 10:54 pm

    TreeFrog
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    March 11, 2006 at 3:23 pm

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62. leviev says:

    June 14, 2010 at 11:33 am

    After reading the interesting poll analysis over at Power Line, I thought I’d rerun the numbers at Tradesports and see where things stand now. Just over a week ago, the state by state futures were predicting a Bush win with…
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