Les Jones

The De-population Problem

Monday, December 27th, 2004 | Population, Social Security |

Foreign Affairs examines declining birthrates around the world. It’s not just Europe, Japan, and the U.S., anymore. Birthrates have fallen dramatically in Iran and Mexico. Puerto Rico’s birthrate is now below replacement levels. Populations are aging everywhere, with potentially ruinous consequences for pension and healthcare systems.

Some biologists now speculate that modern humans have created an environment in which the “fittest,” or most successful, individuals are those who have few, if any, children. As more and more people find themselves living under urban conditions in which children no longer provide economic benefit to their parents, but rather are costly impediments to material success, people who are well adapted to this new environment will tend not to reproduce themselves. And many others who are not so successful will imitate them.

So where will the children of the future come from? The answer may be from people who are at odds with the modern environment — either those who don’t understand the new rules of the game, which make large families an economic and social liability, or those who, out of religious or chauvinistic conviction, reject the game altogether.

In a biological system, fitness is defined by reproducing. But certainly it’s financially advantageous today to not have children.

In the United States, the direct cost of raising a middle-class child born this year through age 18, according to the Department of Agriculture, exceeds $200,000 — not including college. And the cost in forgone wages can easily exceed $1 million, even for families with modest earning power. Meanwhile, although Social Security and private pension plans depend critically on the human capital created by parents, they offer the same benefits, and often more, to those who avoid the burdens of raising a family.

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