CBO: recession will end in second half of 2009

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CBO: recession will end in second half of 2009

Thursday, February 19th, 2009 | Economics |

I’ve quoted CBO on other things to support my pessimism on the economy, so it’s only fair I should mention their optimism on this.

Gateway Pundit - CBO Predicts Recession Will End in 2009 Without Stimulus:

CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. (The longest such recessions otherwise, the 1973–1974 and 1981–1982 recessions, both lasted 16 months. If the current recession were to continue beyond midyear, it would last at least 19 months.) It could also be the deepest recession during the postwar period: By CBO’s estimates, economic output over the next two years will average 6.8 percent below its potential—that is, the level of output that would be produced if the economy’s resources were fully employed (see Figure 1). This ecession, however, may not result in the highest unemployment rate. That rate, in CBO’s forecast, rises to 9.2 percent by early 2010 (up from a low of 4.4 percent at the end of 2006) but is still below the 10.8 percent rate seen near the end of the 1981–1982 recession.

I hope they’re right.

Tags: porkulus