Les Jones

Nifty > Joel Kotkin on Urban Development and Suburbia

Via Bill Hobbs I found this interview with Joel Kotkin, who analyzes cities and where people live. He's been one of the skeptics of the new urban movement.

It seems to me that cities are like lost souls right now. They're looking for new religions to glom onto. First it was the religion of the pedestrian mall, then it was the religion of convention centers, then it was the religion of ball stadiums and sports arenas. Now it's the religion of culture. There are elements in all of those that may make some degree of sense, but they're not the ultimate solutions to the problems.

The "religion of culture" he's refering to is Richard Florida's book, The Rise of the Creative Class. Here's his analysis of that book:

A piece of Florida's theory is correct. There is a niche for these kinds of boutique cities, but the idea that there's this formula that other cities can follow is shortsighted. He never addresses the issue of affordability. I do a lot of focus groups. When you talk to young people what you find is that many things influence their decision on where to live. It's true that people in their early twenties are interested in cool urban amenities. Then something really bad happens to them: they turn thirty. And when they hit thirty they start thinking, Well, do I want to live in a Motel 6 and pay $3,000 a month? Can I get a job? Maybe I'd like to get married and have children.

One of the worst aspects of the Florida book is that he takes the 1997--2000 period and extrapolates it out as this new paradigm. His work has become an excuse for cities to say the way we're going to pursue development is by creating entertainment districts. Let's show we have more brewpubs than some other place. It doesn't work that way. Jane Jacobs had it right: a great metropolitan economy doesn't lure a middle class--it creates one.

Kotkin says that even childless couples are now moving to the suburbs. The next trend he sees is the urbanization of the suburbs, with stores moving to where people live. He also sees crime control as one of the most important factors for cities to win people back.

Side note: when Melissa and I honeymooned in NYC last year, it seemed very safe. No grafitti on the subway. No weirdoes accosting us on the street. Downtown Chicago seemed safe, too, though we had enough sense to avoid the south side.