Les Jones

Re-check Election Projection's prediction. I think you have it wrong.

Also, for the record, my prediction is:
Kerry 304, Bush 234

Ah, thanks. I've fixed their numbers and added yours. I appreciate the link, too.

I'm predicting Nader 0.

Howdy!

What's with all the October predictions? :-) Here's mine from August 8, 2004: http://minutiae.stblogs.org/archives/017036.html

Kerry gets between 11 and 49 electoral votes. *shrug*.

The Washington Post has some predictions, mostly from ninny pundits and assorted political hacks:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinion/outlook/outlookCrystalBall04.html

I'd post the numbers here, but they're in a goofy graphic, and I'm not about to type them in by hand.

The only notable prediction is Bill Kristol's: Bush 348/Kerry 190. As if that wasn't crazy enough by itself, he manages to out-crazy Ann Coulter by a wide margin (she calls it 317/221). Out-crazying Ann Coulter is no mean feat.

Personally, I truly have no freakin' idea who's going to win or what the margin will be. If I had to guess, though, I suppose I'd say that it will be really close, with either Kerry or Bush pulling it out in a squeaker, although it's also possible that one of them might actually win decisively, too. And the polls back me up on this.

I will go out on a limb, though, and say that Bush won't get 348 electoral votes. Kerry won't, either. I'm open to wagers, if anyone's interested.

Here's mine: http://web.utk.edu/~agroves/archives/00000260.html

As I first predicted on September 3, the final tally will be Bush 293, Kerry 245.

How about 329-209 Bush. I predicted a stonger finish for him in May, but he's run a poor campaign and even the Traitorous Lout is able to keep it close.

For what its worth, I also tackle the Senate and make predictions in each major Senate race.

Thanks to all bloggers. Now on behalf of all the Canadians who love your country and envy your political process PLEASE VOTE, GET ALL OF YOUR FRIENDS TO VOTE, GO TO THE LOCAL STARBUCKS AND GET PEOPLE YOU HAVE NEVER MET BEFORE TO VOTE. It is so important that you show all of us that people inside a country can fight like cats and dogs with bitter, angry words and then simply resolve the whole thing with the pull of a lever or a touch on a touch screen or a punch thru a punch card. The world looks to you to discover what a healthy democracy looks like, please don't let us down.

The Weekly Standard has a number of predictions here;

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/831ikvkm.asp

Hey Les, Tucker Carlson has John Kerry winning. You have the EC votes reversed for Bush/Kerry on his prediction.

Hi,

You have the numbers reversed on this link on your page.
Here is what you have: Tucker Carlson (CNN) - Bush 278, Kerry 260 prediction made October 31 , added October 31

It should be: Tucker Carlson (CNN) - Bush 260, Kerry 278 prediction made October 31 , added October 31

I know it seems strange but Tuker did vote against the Pubs.

Adam and Leon: fixed, thanks.

Steve and S: thanks for the links. I added some of the individual predictions to the list, and added a category at the bottom for prediction roundups.

I think you're pretty much right. I think Bush may grab PA and NM too.

FYI, you have posted the composite polling map from Election Projection, not Scott's own prediction.

Scott's prediction is a Bush win, 356-182 in the electoral college and 51.9%-46.5% in the popular vote.

Nice collection, by the way. Very handy one-stop shopping.

A thrashing of near Reagan/Mondale proportions...

http://smugmonkey.blogspot.com/2004/11/official-prediction-thread.html

Popular vote: Bush 59.6 sKerry 40.4

Place your bets.

Great work on this post! It's nice to see all the Political Pajama Predictions in one place.

For the record, I'm standing by my August Final Prediction of Bush 305 - Kerry 233.

(Map on my site but MT-Blacklist won't let me put my URL up.)

If anything, I might have underestimated the spread, which I noted back then but feel even more strongly about today. But despite my misgivings, This Is My Story, And I'm Sticking To It.

Young Goodman Brown: OK, I've added Scott's own prediction and kept his polling prediction, too. Interesting that they're so radically different.

Murdoc: I looked through the MT-Blacklist to see why your link was banned. "murdoc" isn't in there, so I think your URL somehow matches one of the banned addresses that includes "on1ine". (Crap! It wouldn't let me post until I mis-spelled that word. I'll have to dig some more.)

I added your prediction. Yours too, Smug Monkey, and everyone else who posted, too. Thanks.

Thanks Les - bookmarked and blogrolled!

Just wanted to provide an update to my earlier prediction. We took a survey here at work (I work at one of the larger non partisan - but still rather conservative - trade associations in D.C.) and all but 2 people in the office today (myself and one other) think Kerry is going to send Bush home.

Here's a bunch from American Prospect people:

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8824

Yglesias is calling a 269-269 tie.

Bush by 3-5% of PV, 7-20 EC votes.

I base my Made in Canada prediciton on the fact that virtually all of Kerry's vote is actually anti-Bush. I have yet to see any evidence that people are being galvanized to march out and vote for Kerry. The anti-Bush base is stalled at about 40% of the electorate.

To win an election you need to have people who really want you to win, not just people who want the other guy to lose.

OBL reminded the world, and Americans, that there is a war on and Johnny Cambodia does not seem to get this.

Washington insiders, most of the media, a lot of bloggers, have siddled over to Kerry because they do not see Bush executing the war very well. They are mired in the details - I mean 400 tons of explosives from a cache estimated at 500,000 tons?

Out side the beltway and the editorial offices, people know there are no perfect wars. But they also know that since Bush began the war on terror there has not been a further act of terror in America.

They'll break Bush tomorrow. And, possibly, break in a pretty massive way.

G Bush ev 296 add four more if HI goes GB's way
J Kerry ev 242

This will be the final, after two weeks of waiting, after 10,000 lawyers get done and there are three trips to the Supreme court.

Thanks, Devin. I added the American Prospect link under the Roundups heading, and put Matt Yglesias' vote under the main heading.

My prediction, as evidenced by my first commment and the accompanying link, is Bush 293, Kerry 245. For some reason, you have me as predicting Kerry 282, Bush 256 (which seems to be close to the prediction immediately beneath mine on that link).

Here's mine- 40 states for Bush, 10 for Kerry, which is 360 red vs 178 blue. Go Dubya!

Bush 296. That's every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don't trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.

Justification and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html

By the way, the average prediction for Bush so far on this page is 290.

For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That's 348.

Atheist: fixed, thanks.

Just because all the other cool kids are doing it:

Bush 290 / Kerry 248

I have no idea, so I'm just going with the wackiest prediction I can think of. Kerry wins most of the battleground states, the Colorado initiative passes, and one Bush elector is so depressed he defects to Badnarik. Final results after the courts weigh in: Kerry-315, Bush-222, Badnarik-1.

A payday loans secured by a personal check - such as a payday loan - is very expensive credit. Let's say you write a personal check for $115 to borrow $100 in quick cash for up to 14 days. The check casher or payday lender agrees to hold the check until your next payday loan cash. At that time, depending on the particular plan, the lender deposits the check, you redeem the check by paying the $115 in cash, or you roll-over the check by paying a fee to extend the payday loans for another two weeks. In this example, the cost of the initial loan is a $15 finance charge and 391 percent APR. If you roll-over the loan three times, the finance charge would climb to $60 to borrow $100 payday loan cash advance.

TreeFrog

WAFSGERHCVX