Les Jones

Population > Pensions and Population Declines

Jim Miller points to University of Minnesota Research on the relationship between government pension systems and fertility declines.

Drawing from surveys and other data collected by previous researchers in the United States and Europe, including a massive cross-cultural study of 104 countries conducted in 1997, they were able to identify the factors that most directly influenced fertility rates. They also charted the growth of the old-age pension systems in each country to determine what impact, if any, they had on fertility. The development of government pension programs accounted for between half and two-thirds of the decline in fertility rates in the United States and developed countries over the last 70 years, they concluded in a new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

It's having an effect on the U.S., too, but somewhat less so since our pension systems (Social Security and Medicare) are modest compared to Japan and European countries.