Les Jones: TradeSports on Politics, Hurricanes

August 01, 2006

Misc > TradeSports on Politics, Hurricanes

TradeSports is a futures market for financial and other futures. By pooling bets from a variety of people it creates a market consensus on ideas.

How well does it work? During the 2004 presidential election I collected predictions from bloggers and columnists, and TradeSports called the electoral vote tally exactly.

Here are TradeSports bets on the upcoming hurricane season and the 2006 and 2008 elections as of Tuesday afternoon. Higher prices indicate events TradeSports bettors think are more likely.

Contract	Bid	Ask
DeLay guilty laundering	25	29.4
Libby guilty lying	35.1	44.5
Bird flu found in USA by Dec 31 06	30.1	34.2
GOP takes FL Senate seat in 06	3.1	5.8
HRC DEM 08	42.1	42.3
McCain GOP 08	38.1	38.5
Frist GOP 08	2.1	2.2
Allen GOP 08	16.1	16.4
Rudy GOP 08	15.1	15.2
DEMs win 08	49	49.1
GOP keeps House control in 06	47.3	47.4
GOP keeps Senate control in 06	76.3	78.9
SS private Accts by Dec 31 06	0.1	2.4
OBL neutralized by Dec 31 06	11.5	12
USA and/or Israel bomb Iran by Mar 31 07	24.6	25.8
Feb07 gold at/above 700 on Dec 29	25	40
Feb07 oil at/above 80 on Dec 29	34	44
Euro/USD at/above 1.3500 on Dec 31	16	30
Cat3 hits FL Jun1-Nov30	54	57.9
Cat3 hits TX Jun1-Nov30	31.5	37
Cat3 hits LA Jun1-Nov30	28	31
Cat3 hits NC Jun1-Nov30	24.1	28
Cat3 hits SC Jun1-Nov30	15.8	18.5
Cat3 hits MS Jun1-Nov30	2.5	15
Cat3 hits AL Jun1-Nov30	8	13.5
Cat3 hits GA Jun1-Nov30	11	14
Cat3 hits VA Jun1-Nov30	3	9.9
Cat3 hits NY Jun1-Nov30	8	11.4

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Comments

As someone who makes his living analyzing numbers, this is fascinating stuff. I'll quibble on a few points but overall it seems that the AQ [accuracy quotient] is fairly high at this stage.

Ain't politics wunnerful?

As far as the Free Republic of Tennessee is concerned, my anxiety level is pretty high come Thursday evening. The "pretender" for assuming Dr. Frist's seat is showing lots of momentum, no doubt because he's managed to outspend my favorite 2nd Amendment champion Ed Bryant.

...Alex

Posted by: Alex the Gripaholic at August 01, 2006