Les Jones: Japan's Engineering Crunch

May 21, 2008

Population > Japan's Engineering Crunch

The New York Times - High-Tech Japanese, Running Out of Engineers (emphasis mine):

The problem did not catch Japan by surprise. The first signs of declining interest among the young in science and engineering appeared almost two decades ago, after Japan reached first-world living standards, and in recent years there has been a steady decline in the number of science and engineering students. But only now are Japanese companies starting to feel the real pinch.
By one ministry of internal affairs estimate, the digital technology industry here is already short almost half a million engineers. Headhunters have begun poaching engineers midcareer with fat signing bonuses, a predatory practice once unheard-of in Japan’s less-cutthroat version of capitalism.

The problem is likely to worsen because Japan has one of the lowest birthrates in the world. “Japan is sitting on a demographic time bomb,” said Kazuhiro Asakawa, a professor of business at Keio University. “An explosion is going to take place. They see it coming, but no one is doing enough about it.”

The shortage is causing rising anxiety about Japan’s competitiveness. China turns out some 400,000 engineers every year, hoping to usurp Japan’s place one day as Asia’s greatest economic power.

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Comments

Along with demographics, the corporate culture of Japan's high-tech firms also contributes to this malaise.

First, there is a "samurai-warrior-spirit" BS permeating the engineering ranks. That is, one must be willing to give up one's own life for the job (at least metaphorically speaking), with unlimited hours to get the job done. One never goes home before the boss, and always arrives before he does.

Second, the compensation is pretty limited, compared with US engineers at least, and the benefits (vacation, perks) are nearly nonexistent.

Third, there are other options available to science and engineering college graduates now, such as finance, law, or emigration, which pay more.

Having worked in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan in semiconductor engineering, all I can say is that all three have horrid working conditions compared to the US. Mainland China has older semiconductor technology, with export of IP and equipment (from at least the US) limited due to military dual use concerns, but they are indeed catching up on their own with the rest of the world.

While the cold war with Russia is pretty much over, except for putting out the worldwide brush fires they left burning almost 2 decades ago, China still considers itself in at least national competition with the US for this century's title of world dominant superpower. When they think they can, they will try to retake Taiwan by force or by threat. At that point, we will have to decide if China is just a competitor or (as I believe) an enemy to the US.

Posted by: Mikee at May 23, 2008